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‘Buri munota ku Isi havuka abana 250’ ibyiza n’ibi byabyo

‘Buri munota ku Isi havuka abana 250’ ibyiza n’ibi byabyo
2-06-2020 saa 10:29' | By Nsanzimana Ernest | Yasomwe n'abantu 1035 | Ibitekerezo

Umuryango w’Abibumbye ugaragaza ko muri 2100, Isi izaba ituwe n’ abantu barenga miliyari 11, ibi ngo bizaterwa n’uko umubare w’abana bavuka ugenda wiyongera.

Mu 1800 Isi yari ituwe n’abantu miliyari imwe, baba miliyari 2 muri 1927, baba miliyari 5 1987, ubu bageze kuri miliyari 7.5.

Imibare itangwa n’ishami ry’umuryango w’abibumbye ryita ku bana UNICEF, yerekaka ko buri munota ku Isi havuka abana 250, bigatuma ku mwaka havuka abana barenga miliyoni 130.

Nubwo UN ivuga ko muri 2100 Isi izaba ituwe n’abarenga miliyari 11, iyo uteranyije uko buri gihugu cyo mu Isi giteganya ingano y’abaturage bacyo muri uwo mwaka usanga biruta abo UN iteganya.

Banki y’Isi ivuga ko guhera mu myaka ya za 1960 hagiye havuka abana benshi b’abahungu, byiyongera kukubatonesha none byatumye kuri ubu abagore barenga miliyoni 117 ku Isi ubu babayeho mu bukene bukabije.

Mu bihugu bimwe na bimwe mu myaka 30 ishize wasanga abahungu baruta abakobwa ho 25%. Bitekerezwa koi bi aribyo byonereye amakimbirane yo mu ngo n’icuruzwa ry’abantu.

Nihe abaturage biyongera cyane, nihe batiyongera cyane

Ku rwego mpuzamahanga umubane w’Afurika n’uwa Asia nibyo bifite abaturage biyongera cyane. Muri 2050 ibihugu hagati ya 15 na 20 bituwe cyane ku Isi bizaba biri muri Afurika na Asia. Muri 2100 Afurika izaba ituwe na 1/3 cy’abatuye Isi, izaba ituwe na miliyari 4.

The Guardian ifite inkuru ivuga ko inzobere Paul Ehrlich avuga ko ubwiyongere bw’abaturage buriho buruta ubwiyongere bw’ibibatunga. Kugeza ubu ibyakabaye bitunga abatuye Isi mu gihe cy’umwaka bisigaye bishira umwaka utaragera hagati abatuye Isi bagatangira kurya ibyari kuzabatunga mu mwaka ukurikiyeho. Ibi kugira ngo byumvikane neza twafatira ku rugero rw’umuntu uhembwa amafaranga runaka buri kwezi, ariko amafaranga ahembwa akamushirana ukwezi kugeze ku itariki ziri munsi ya 15, agatangira kwikopesha.

Bamwe batekereza ko impamvu ibigomba gutunga abatuye Isi mu mwaka bishira umwaka utaragera hagati ari uko ibihugu bikennye aribyo bibyara cyane.

Inzobere kandi zivuga ko mu bintu bitera kubyara abana benshi harimo ubujiji no gutsikamira abagore. Uyu munsi mu Isi impuzandengo zigaragaza ko buri mugore abyara abana babiri mu gihe myaka 50 buri mugore yabarirwaga abana 7. Icyatuma abatuye Isi batiyongera ku muvuduko wo hejuru ni uko abana bapfaga bari benshi kurusha abapfa ubu.

Imibare y’abagore baboneza urubyaro muri 2015 yari igeze kuri 65% ku Isi mu gihe mu 1970 bari 36%. Igihugu cya Mauritius mu myaka ya za 1960 cyagize ubwiyongere bukabije bw’abaturage bituma gishyira imbaraga nyinshi mu kuboneza urubyaro. Muri iki gihugu ubu abagore baboneza urubyaro ni 75%.

Ni iki gitera ubwiyongere bw’abaturage kandi hariho kuboneza urubyaro ?

Impamvu ni uko buri mwaka mu Isi hapfa abantu miliyoni 55, hakavuka miliyoni zirenga 130.

Afurika yo munsi y’ubutayu bwa Sahara niyo iza imbere mu gupfusha abantu benshi, kuko abana 49 ku 1000 bapfa batarizihiza batarageza ku myaka 5. Ugereranyije no mu Burayi usanga iyi mibare iri hejuru kuko mu Burayi abana 6 ku 1000 aribo bapfa batarageza ku myaka 5, muri Amerika ya Ruguru abana bapfa batarageza ku myaka 5 ni 4, kimwe no muri Australia
Indi mpamvu ituma abantu bakomeza kwiyongera mu Isi ni uko icyizere cyo kubaho mu Isi kigenda kiyongera. Kuri ubu ibihugu 30 ku Isi bifite icyizere cyo kubaho kugeza ku myaka 80, ibihugu bifite ikizere cyo kubaho kugera ku myaka 70, ni ibihugu 100.

Gukira bifitanye isano no kutabyara cyane

Ibihugu iyo byongereye imbaraza mu kuboneza urubyaro, ubukungu bwabyo buzatumbagira cyane, kubera ko umubare w’abakora wiyongera ukaruta umubare w’abarya ntacyo binjije.

Ibi nibyo byabaye ku bihugu byo muri Asia, birimo Koreya y’Epfo n’Ubushinwa mu myaka ya za 70. Amateka agaragaza ko mu myaka ya 1950, Koreya y’Epfo yari kimwe mu bihugu bikennye cyane ariko ubu ifite ikigo kitwa KOICA gitera inkunga ibihugu bikennye.

Iyo umubare w’abana bapfa batarageza ku myaka 5 ugabanutse n’umubare w’abana bavuka ugakomeza kwiyongeraho habaho icyo bita ‘youth bulge’. Iki kibazo nicyo kiri muri Afurika. Kugira abantu benshi bakiri bato. Iyo havutse abana benshi kandi bakajya mu ishuri barangiza ntibabone imirimo nabyo bibyara ikibazo cy’ ubushomeri.

Kugira urubyiruko rwinshi bifasha igihugu kuzamuka mu iterambere iyo impano zabo zibyajwe umusaruro bakabona akazi bagakora. Iyo habuze ishoramari ryo gushyira mu rubyiruko ngo rubyaze umusaruro ibyo rwize igihugu kiribura.

Ese kugabanuka kw’abaturage byo byaba ari igisubizo

Mu bihugu byo mu burayi n’Amerika abantu bakuze nibo benshi kandi bashobora kuzakomeza kwiyongera. Mu Budage, Ubuyapani, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Mongolia na Vietnam, abaturage bafite imyaka irenga 60 bazikuba inshuro 3 mu mwaka wa 2050. Bazava kuri miliyari 1 bagere kuri miliyari.


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